One week away, what do the numbers tell us?

On Sunday, I shared with a group of folks that when we began this campaign, I knew that it was going to require me to work harder than I’d ever worked, to build a movement unlike anything else we’ve ever seen in East Tennessee, and bring in thousands of volunteers and supporters . . . and on top of that, we’d need a miracle.

And y’all, I think we might just experience a miracle in one week’s time.

When we began this movement over one year ago, here’s what I told you:

“This Congressional district is a Republican stronghold – arguably, one of the most reliable in the country. Last election, Burchett won with almost 70% of the vote. But this district, despite what anyone will tell you, is winnable.”

I saw an opportunity to serve our neighbors and build a coalition of East Tennesseans, regardless of political affiliation, who wanted change. But I knew, as did you, how steep those odds were.

In the fall of 2025, I did believe that this seat was winnable – but I didn’t know if we’d close that massive gap in one cycle. So much of it depended on what we built together, and on factors outside of my (and our) control.

After one year of hoping, working, and building, we are one week away from the most critical election of our lives. And based on what I’m seeing, we can flip this seat.

Let me share a snapshot of what we’ve built over the last year, and what my team and I are seeing in the early voting numbers.

First, we’ve built a movement of hope I don’t think many folks believed was possible in East Tennessee:

• $770,000+ raised

• 20+ East Tennesseans hired as staff on the campaign

• 1,300+ volunteers

• 19,000+ doors knocked

• 18,000+ postcards sent to voters written by volunteers

• 9,500+ voters called

• 4,000+ yard signs deployed around the district

That doesn’t include the events and town halls we’ve hosted, the many causes we’ve supported through this campaign, the millions of people engaged on social media, and the community we’ve built.

Now here’s what we’re seeing in the data so far. And here’s what I hope you take away: we can make the impossible possible. But we need all hands on deck.

Based on the latest early voting data we have access to on the individual-level (October 24th), of those who have cast votes so far:

• 53.91% (46,480) are Republican

• 34.91% (30,097) are Democrats

• 11.17% (9,633) are non-partisan

In a typical year, about 28% of the non-partisan or Independent vote goes to the Democratic candidate. Based on that, our floor of the vote right now during early voting is 38%. (Keep in mind that on average, Tim Burchett gets about 68% of the vote compared to 32% for his Democratic opponent).

But there’s nothing typical about this year, or this campaign.

Nationally, the generic Congressional ballot has Dems up 11%. Here in East Tennessee, in the August election, mayoral candidate Beau Hawk swung roughly 12% of Republican primary voters. With a 12% swing among Republicans and Independents with Democratic turnout what it is right now, our model puts us at 45.85% of the vote.

Instead of looking at modeled individual partisan affiliation, we can also look at precinct turnout across the district. When comparing current turnout to 2022 early voting, 9 out of the 10 Knox County precincts with the highest share of early voters so far favor Democrats by at least 29%.

To be clear: early voting totals aren’t election totals. Our model could be wrong . . . in either direction.

For the thousands of Democratic voters who show up during Presidential election years but not midterms, I’m putting out the bat signal.

For the Republicans and Independents who believe in this movement, I’m asking you to talk to your friends, coworkers, families, and neighbors.

For the people who have believed for a long time that their vote didn’t matter, I’m telling you it does.

If you’re asking yourself: how do I help make history? Making history will require a historic level of effort, and we can’t do it without you. We have action opportunities every single day now through Election Day.

My field director shared that our biggest need this week is door-knocking. If every one of our volunteers signs up to do just one more canvassing shift between now and election day, we can talk to every Democratic voter in our key precincts who hasn’t voted yet and get them to the polls.

And on November 3rd, come to Printshop starting at 9 a.m. for a day of action (we will put you to work!) and our Election Night watch party after polls close.

I don’t know what’s going to happen in one week. But I do know that our commitment to our community doesn’t change, and that I am so, so proud of what we have built together, and grateful to be doing this work alongside you.

Let’s make history,

Michaela B for Tennessee

“We have been told we cannot do this by a chorus of cynics. And they will only grow louder and more dissonant in the weeks and months to come.

We’ve been asked to pause for a reality check. We’ve been warned against offering the people of this nation false hope.

But in the unlikely story that is America, there has never been anything false about hope.” - President Obama